Performance: September 2023 (-2.26%) - Trying to Squeeze Water from Stone
It was not a good month, to be frank. I took small losses early on into the month because I had thought that SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ would shape up after the initial fall in price in August. I had a few feeler positions that didn’t work and made a few small cap plays that in retrospect I should not have taken. I am starting to learn that really it comes down to the high conviction plays that come once in a while that I should be loading up on risk, but in an environment like this, with so much chop, sitting on my hands is really the only intelligent thing to do (with the type of strategy I am trading). I think I made a mistake trying to, in a choppy and down market like this, force breakout plays through either biotechs or microcap stocks. It is like squeezing water from a stone and it is not worth doing. At least from a swing trader perspective.
That said, the 10SMA is less than the 20 SMA, on SPY and QQQ and things still seem choppy. Not a lot of breakout setups are showing up on scans and even the scans themselves are slowing down or have been reduced from the previous months. This is definitely not a time to trade breakout stocks! Even the hot themes have essentially dried up leaving nothing to chase. For example, in mid-September, the “Cannabis” theme had a big and brief push before a short consolidation. Canopy Growth Corp CGC 0.00%↑ and Aurora Cannabis ACB 0.00%↑ both shot up over 100% with secondary stocks also following. The consolidation was brief but as the market turned negative so did the overall cannabis theme.
I think the only theme that has kept chugging along is Uranium. Stocks such as:
They have all had steady inclines while the market has swung back and forth. There haven’t been any real consolidation or any setup formation but really this theme is the only industry that I would be happy trading right now with such a lousy general market and even then I would be cautious.
Stats from Broker:
Benchmark Return Comparison:
Personal Trade Log Stats:
* Note: Ending balance and monthly return amount do not match my IBKR account (pretty sure due to mistyping an entry or exit)
Although I only made 7 trades this month, with this environment, I think I technically overtraded! - Not good
Currently, I am on an 11-trade loss streak. It doesn’t feel good but thank God I have reduced my risk per trade, or else my drawdown would be soul-crushing - which at least is a plus I think!
Not trading anything until I see consistent returns from the general market!
Till next time,
-F4VS