Market Outlook (Mar 3-7) - A Pullback or Further Decline
I will be firmly sitting on the bench and watching the action ...
There's not much to say for last week other than YIKES! The market did an oopsy and had a little tumble. Is this a brief pullback into more choppiness or a nasty fall down? Not sure, yet but time will tell.
This week, there are no themes I want to mention as just about everything is in the gutter (even precious metal prices took a hit). My scanners for new themes and stocks have been a baron wasteland. However, I thought it would be good to show the contrast between the number of stocks hitting my scans in a good vs. bad market. Also, a small overview of the indices is below :)
For myself, I am sitting and watching on the sidelines and trying to really dive deeper into backtesting ideas and reviewing my databases.
I want to hear your 2¢ about the market… ⤵️
CONTRASTING SCANS IN A BAD MARKET:
I will use FinViz as my main tool to search and scan for themes. But in a bad market, you can clearly see the difference in how many stocks are showing up on my scan versus a good market. For example, below are the total stocks that were picked up by my FinViz scanners for high-performance stocks for 1-week, 1-month, quarter, and a half year:
1-Week (> 20% w/ some volatility and volume): 69 stocks
1-Month (> 30% w/ some volatility and volume): 127 stocks
Quarter (> 50% w/ some volatility and volume): 140 stocks
Half Year (> 100% w/ some volatility and volume): 143 stocks
In contrast, normally, in a good market environment I will see anywhere from 150 - 500 stocks hit my scans where I would then need to filter out further in order to get a a manageable list of stocks to sift through.
Like I said, the market is not looking too hot right now and it is showing; not just with what the indices are doing but even in scans!
OVERALL MARKET:
SPY 0.00%↑ → US Large Caps (Market Weighted)
SPY really doesn't want to let go of the 100SMA (purple line). But just like the 50SMA broke down in December, we could see the same thing happen again. A LOT of sector rotation. I don’t even know if I can call it sector rotation, as much as everything dropping. One thing I do know is if SPY continues to drop, the bounce back will be glorious for longs. Possible opportunities await…
IWM 0.00%↑ → US Small-Caps
Small caps are in the toilet right now! No clear signs of pullbacks. Sitting on the bench and watching is probably the best approach right now.
QQQ 0.00%↑ → Large Cap Tech
Happy (Maybe not so much right now but in the future lol) trading friends,
F4VS
