Qullamaggie: Stream 56 - 60 Review [Jan-Feb 2020] - Successful Traders Don't Give Up
A Review of Kristjan Kullamägi's Livestreams (Stream 56 to 60)
Over the months I have gone through every stream that Kristjan Kullamägi (@Qullamaggie), a prolific momentum swing trader, has ever posted. Below I have categorized my notes into topics relating to his streams. Comments made by me, on my thoughts on a particular note, are italicized. There is an index of all current streams that I have made notes on at the bottom of the post. If you want to start from the beginning of his streams see here:
For reference, the chart below shows the overall market (SPY 0.00%↑) KK was trading in, at the time of the streams (Jan 28, 2020 to Feb 5, 2020):
Stream #56: “My coronavirus plays gapping lower. Jan 28, 2020”
Breakout Setups:
SNAP 0.00%↑; would have been a nice buy, it rode the 200-day, had a nice little range break with HLs, then had a breakout, pretty good setup!
Stream #57: “The hunt for the next 6-figure opportunity! Maybe Tesla on earnings tonight? Jan 29, 2020”
Holding Positions Through Earnings Release:
TSLA 0.00%↑; Reports in after hours. I will keep at least 1500 shares to the close and watch every tick until they report and see how it acts. If it violates my stops I’ll just stop myself out and if it goes lower and gives me a good entry I’ll add, going to watch this very closely.
I think the report will push this thing to either 650+ or below 500, I think there’s a big move coming, obv I’m betting it’s going to be the downside but if it goes up I’ll just stop myself out and it will be fine, and I’ll hope for it to just go absolutely insane.
At times KK will hold through earning announcements but look how cautious he is. If it is not going his way in the after-hours after watching every tick he will close the trade.
Stream #58: “Corona plays and Tesla! Jan 31, 2020”
Swing Trading Wisdom:
There are two things I’m not good at, anticipating breakouts and buying dips.
When you get a really smooth run for a few months, usually you get choppiness after that.
Defensive Vs Aggressive:
Referring to TSLA 0.00%↑: I’m usually very defensive when things hit the backside, I’m never aggressive on the backside and I really need to learn to be, bc I’m not the kind of trader who wants to nail the top, and sometimes it costs me, but other times it works too so it’s a double-edged sword.
This is a megacap stock up 150% above its 200-day. I’ve never seen anything like it, 45% above its 50day. It is trying to break down, but you never know with these, it shows one down day then it’s just right back up, one down day then bounces back to new highs that’s been the theme.
Breakout Setups:
VSTM 0.00%↑; Still long, still flagging, the 20day has caught up. This thing has to go soon. It’s a strong stock when the 20-day catches up with the price action and 10-day.
Referring to AMZN 0.00%↑: It had a big multi-year move, pulled back, bounced, pulled back, went sideways, and breaking out.
COVID Theme:
Referring to APT 0.00%↑: These corona names are intriguing longs for over the weekend in case the situation worsens, even though some of these have already doubled, they can go up another 50/100%.
Referring to CODX 0.00%↑: These things are not going away they start pushing each other, they look like they’re fading away then one of them starts going and pulls back the others then the others start going, these types of sector plays can be choppy.
Referring to VXRT 0.00%↑: It’s really strong. Look at the volume on it. I’m tempted to buy some if it can go sideways a little bit here before it makes new highs, I’m just very intrigued by it.
A note about KK’s entry on this trade. He entered on Jan 31, 2020, on a gap-up day where previously, the stock exploded on Jan 21. Then had 2 pullbacks before Jan 31. My assumption is KK entered because of the past pullbacks into gap-ups. It is interesting that this isn’t really in KK’s repertoire of setups but because the theme was hot and had massive relative volume, it was in his sights to trade.
Buying the Dip:
I’m the world’s worst dip buyer, maybe if it dips a little bit more maybe Ill buy it, just so scary buying dips I hate buying dips I always buy breakouts
Stream #59: “Coronavirus stocks choppiest theme pumps I’ve ever seen. Feb 3, 2020”
Choppy or Down Trending Markets:
In down or sideways markets how does my approach change? I trade fewer breakouts, or at least in theory. Sometimes I get tempted and then I get chopped around. When I see something really good, I mean, I have to trade it.
Following the Setup:
There are a lot of stocks I think will be higher over the next few years but I can’t trade them all, I need to wait for my specific setups. I’m not an investor.
Parabolic Short Setups:
When I used to day trade, no I never shorted day one. Day one is where accounts are broken, I learned it the hard way, trust me on that one.
Indicators:
I don’t know why VWAP works but it just really works well on momentum stocks. (Intraday Indicator)
COVID Theme:
GILD 0.00%↑ is up because I read they have the only effective drug against coronavirus.
That absolutely killed all these corona plays, NNVC 0.00%↑, LLIT 0.00%↑, and CBLI 0.00%↑all down 20-30% premarket. Absolutely killed all these pump stocks. And too bad it’s GILD. It would have been epic if it had been any of these stocks all around 30/40/50/100M market cap, GILD is up 5% PM, that’s a $4B Mcap gain, imagine if that money had flown into something like INO 0.00%↑ or AHPI 0.00%↑. Those would be ten baggers instantly.
APT 0.00%↑ and LAKE 0.00%↑ are the only ones holding up because these are not drug-related, they make protective gear.
KK always has situational awareness, not just in the general market sense, but for a specific theme. In this case, although GILD is out of his ATR% range (ie. GILD being a slow-moving mega-cap stock) he still has to be able to track stocks in the theme that can move the overall theme, which in term would impact his watchlist of stocks within that theme.
Stream #60: “Shorting Tesla, a potential MILLION dollar opportunity if done right. Feb 5, 2020”
Mental Fortitude:
My PnL swings are enormous right now, just have to try to detach and focus on the setup. It’s kinda hard sometimes.
A few of my friends actually started trading, they traded for like a year, but they didn’t have much success. They could have if they stuck to it, but they got bored. Everyone thinks it’s so easy but like, it takes years and years and years and years. That’s really the only difference between successful traders and the unsuccessful traders: The successful ones don’t give up. They stick with it. Even if they blow up, they come back. They go back to work, they come back to trading. That’s what I did, several times. I could have just given up, you know, finished my studies, found work and you know, worked at a regular job. And now I make as much money in a year as I would have made in a lifetime at a regular job, so, dropping out of school was the best decision I ever made.
This is what 99% of trading is, waiting and stalking.
Price Action:
Just follow the price action, you could come up with a thousand reasons why the stock will go up from here or go down from here, the fact is you don’t need any of those reasons. All you need is to look at the price action.
Entry / Exits:
Referring to TSLA 0.00%↑ trade: This is what momentum stocks do sometimes; they go straight up, and then when they go down, they go down without even being able to bounce. So my first target is the 10-day, second target the 20-day, and third target would be the 50-day, but obviously, all of these MAs will move higher each day.
Staying Calm:
Referring to TSLA 0.00%↑ trade: How do I stay so calm? Well I’m not that calm. I mean, one - I’ve been here before. And two, I’ve seen this movie so many times. It’s gonna be a huge trade, so I don’t really worry about that. Right now it’s just going straight up, there’s no setup there, so not even really looking at it. Let it do what it has to do, there’ll probably be a bunch of funds that’ll blow up on this thing. But there will be some epic sh*t on the downside eventually. I just wish I had traded it on the long side, it’s so easy in hindsight, but it is what it is, I wish I was a genius, but I’m really not. I really am not.
Home Run Trading:
Even if you take ten starter losses, when you finally nail the trade, you’re going to make 2, 3, 4, 5x the amount you lost initially. Or maybe 10 times the amount. That’s what trading is all about, small losses, big wins. I’m kind of a home run trader, not one of these traders that goes for singles. You know, I really want home run trades, and sometimes I can have a lot of losses in a row.
Database:
Interesting Shot of KQ’s notes, in the red box you can see what the titles of his databases are. Very interesting! This is what everyone should be doing!
KK made a physical book full of his best historical setups. This is something that Marios Stamatoudis, a famous trader who uses a similar strategy to KK, also preaches!
-F4VS
Index:
Stream 56 - 60 [Jan/Feb 2020] - Notes