Kristjan Kullamägi (Qullamaggie): Stream 16 - Stream 20 [Oct/Nov 2019] - Notes
Over the months I have gone through every stream that Kristjan Kullamägi (@Qullamaggie), a prolific momentum swing trader, has ever posted. Below I have categorized my notes into topics relating to his streams.
For reference, the chart below shows the overall market KK was trading in, at the time of the streams:
Stream #16: “GOLD and SILVER! Oct 24, 2019”
Breakout Setups:
Referring to Credit Suisse (merged with UBS 0.00%↑): When the price of a stock has been trying to clear out of a range over and over again eventually it’s gonna succeed, the more times a breakout/support level is tested, the higher probability of an eventual breakout or breakdown
Longer Timeframe on Breakout Setups:
You can trade off the longer-term charts especially large-cap stocks that move slower. It’s the same patterns over and over again, but the longer timeframes you use the more you need to use fundamental analysis, there needs to be a reason for the thing to go up, you can’t buy a random flag on some sh*tty stock. It needs to be earnings power or some kind of a driver for the stock into the future.
EP Setups:
Growth estimates are extremely important since the market is a forward-looking mechanism. Missing on both EPS and Rev, not good at all.
Stocks will have choppy earnings, no real trend, a good quarter then bad quarter, grow a lot then lose a lot, no real trends and this is why some stocks go sideways for so many years, the earnings haven’t gone anywhere.
Software:
Uses a few services where he can see old earnings, “Optionshawk” and “Jaguar Analytics”, those are two-morning emails he uses, then looks at the gappers. Normally looking at the ones with big growth numbers.
Stream #17: “Gold and silver breaking out! Nailed it perfectly. Oct 25, 2019”
Market Wisdom:
Remember, the market is forward-looking
If you have a small account or even a tiny account, I would say go for singles, take the singles, and try to be as consistent as you can, try to avoid drawdowns, the more bored you are the better. When things start getting exciting that’s when you take a step back because that’s when things get dangerous, you should be bored out of your mind. Try to find stocks with big ADR, preferably liquid, then try to find areas to go long or short.
Managing Emotions:
You can’t manage your emotions, I think people who think you should manage your emotions are full of sh*t, you should just accept your emotions. Some people need to get their trading fix, and these emotions like FOMO and whatever will never go away, they’re always gonna be there, that’s why he plays wow to take the mind off trading.
This is why he overtrades; sometimes he just puts on trades and knows they’re not optimal but does it in smaller sizes just to get the fix, and it helps. He learned to accept that and needed to make small donations to the market to avoid bigger losses later on, so he did small stupid things on purpose to avoid doing big stupid things later.
Stream #18: “Markets breaking out and my accounts too! Oct 28, 2019”
Trading a Low Win Rate System:
This is what trading is all about, you can be wrong 8 times and still make money. It’s all about R/R, you need to find the scenarios where you can get great R/R and then you just sit and wait and do nothing. First, you wait and do nothing and find your setups, and then you buy/short your setups and wait and do nothing other than scale out and move your stops.
Market Sentiment:
Refering to IWM 0.00%↑: Something that can fuel a potential rally, we’ve been building solid bases, every time the market, at least over the past 20 years, has been going sideways for at least 2 years in an uptrend, we’ve gone higher. Every time the market has had a big 1/2year base there has been a 1-2year rally following that. Every time the market has had a big 1/2year base there has been a 1-2 year rally following that.
$IWM - Daily Chart
Stream #19: “XNET 0.00%↑ $100K+ f-up. Oct 29, 2019”
Perspective:
Referring to AMKR 0.00%↑: If you look at estimates for next year this is expected to grow 760%, but the problem is this year declined by 92%. It’s expected to earn 43¢ next year but it’s less than it earned 2018, 2017, and 2016, but the stock is taking out highs from 2016 pretty much, so the question is why is the market paying a higher multiple for less earnings, what’s different? So you can’t blindly look at growth estimates, you have to put things in perspective.
Stream #20: “Earninss, earnings, earnings! Nov 1, 2019”
Market Sentiment:
Some guy on Twitter says the move higher in SPY 0.00%↑ is unsustainable because the volume is low… I’m gonna show you guys, you see the volume in SPY the past 10 years, rallied 300%, and the volume has been going lower. And I just read some research that the volume is generally lower on up days than it is on down days, so that’s not really a valid argument I think.
$SPY - Weekly Chart
Return per Year:
If you’re a day trader or a swing trader I think at least 100% per year is the minimum; that’s been my benchmark and I’ve hit it for the past 6 years. You should at least be able to double your money every year, at least.
Index:
Stream 16 - 20 [Oct/Nov 2019] - Notes
Sometimes letting the emotions out is the only way. But in a very controlled manner. Many times I do face the same issue of FOMO, that my PF stocks are not moving but the entire universe is blowing up.
What is your take on it ?
Thank Once again...!!