Kristjan Kullamägi (Qullamaggie): Stream 31 - Stream 35 [Nov/Dec 2019] - Notes
A Review of Kristjan Kullamägi's Livestreams (Stream 31 to 35)
Over the months I have gone through every stream that Kristjan Kullamägi (@Qullamaggie), a prolific momentum swing trader, has ever posted. Below I have categorized my notes into topics relating to his streams. Comments made by me, on my thoughts on a particular note, are italicized.
For reference, the chart below shows the overall market (SPY 0.00%↑) KK was trading in, at the time of the streams:
Stream #31: “$250K in profits on $KRTX short! 1,257 views. Nov 25, 2019”
Market Sentiment:
I’m always going be long at the top, I will always be long at the top. I don’t anticipate where the top is gonna be, I’d rather sell on the downside when they start violating the MAs, I will always be long at the top.
Referring to ZGNX 0.00%↑: acceptance of NDA filing, totally totally totally irrelevant news, but the biotech market is hot and this is why this thing is going up, the market is finding reasons to run up any and every biotech stock. This is what happens when a sector gets hot, they start going up big on big volume on irrelevant news.
EP Setups:
Usually, what happens on earnings stocks is they have a lot of volume out of the gate then it keeps declining the rest of the day, 90% of the time the stocks have their biggest volume in the first 30mins then they just decline the rest of the day.
EP Scanning:
My EP scan is inspired by Stockbee; pretty much scans for stocks up 8%+ on high volume, stocks that probably had some earnings or biotech news.
Risk to Reward:
If you can’t see at least a 1 to 5 potential reward, you probably shouldn’t take the trade, obviously it’s hard to know beforehand but 1:5 is probably a good number. If day trading, and you’re up 2R you should probably lock in 1/3 or maybe 1/2 and let the rest ride and raise/lower your stops. The way I trade now I go for home runs, I try to get 20 to 50R. Swing trading is different because you can get these enormous moves over time. It’s not an exact science it’s also a lot about feel, like if you had a losing streak or something and you’re not getting things going, you should probably lock in things faster. It’s a feel thing also, and if you feel like everything is going up a lot more after you sell it maybe you should try to hold for longer. But a general rule is you want to be paid for at least 3-4 losers on every good winner.
Stream #32: “Markets are hot right now! Nov 26, 2019”
Nothing too useful for this stream
Stream #33: “Markets are hot right now! Nov 27, 2019”
Sizing In and Out of Positions
I think for most people who follow KK and his methodology behind trading, he focuses on taking profits out of the trade during certain thresholds, for example, after 3-5 days after a Breakout Setup, he will sell 1/4 to 1/3 of his position and will have a trailing stop loss on the moving averages. He will sometimes sell portions of the position when he feels like momentum has faded. But, one thing he doesn’t talk too much about, and what I think is really important is his ability to size into the position! Since watching his streams, a key element to his entries is sizing into a position. Now, this is most likely because of how much capital he is using to trade but a lot of traders that I research really emphasize the benefits of sizing into the position. For example, Marios Stamatoudis does this exact same thing, but he calls it “Free-Rolling” a position. You can read more about it here.
Stream #34: “Markets are hot, sick opportunitues! Nov 29, 2019”
Market Sentiment:
You get crazy microcap runners, almost every single time the market pulls back right after.
Parabolic Short Setups:
Referring to ASLN 0.00%↑: You never want to be an early short, this is why you don’t short day 1, you wait after sh*t has gone crazy, that’s when you short, you need to wait until the stock has been up 3 to 4 days in a row after the insanity has happened.
Stream #35: “Back at streaming! Dec 18, 2019”
Breakout Setups:
RETA 0.00%↑ looks really good; high tight flag, and really explosive. This is the kinda scenario you can risk like $3/4 to make like $150.
Grouping Stocks by Themes:
Refering to ASHR 0.00%↑: China is just coming out of this big big triangle, I think China is on the verge of a big move higher. $EEM too is in a big flag, I’m thinking about doing options on this thing, over $45 that’s the trigger. I think there will be big moves next year, yes there will be pullbacks but it’s hard to be bearish when so many things are on the verge of/breaking out of long ranges, but we’ll see, I just follow the price action, is hard to predict.
BABA 0.00%↑ , I think is just getting started, already up 13% from the base breakout where I bought it, I think it will go $250+, this is the leading China stock right now.
$TCEHY had a breakout from a long base a couple of days ago, didn’t buy it but looks good also, one of the leading tech stocks not just in China but in the world, bit slower but think it could be more of a long-term hold.
One thing I thought I would mention; when it comes to Breakout Setups, and looking at how KK views the charts he is seeing, I sometimes wonder, I would never draw the trend line like that or I don’t know if I see this particular pattern compared to how he saw it and I think the more I understand the market the more it doesn’t necessarily matter when it comes to swing trading momentum. I think as long as you can spot in a way a very basic range for a pattern, and as long as the factors of momentum are there (for example, a hot theme is starting to trend up) then drawing lines on a chart doesn’t really matter, or least the preciseness of it doesn’t really matter.
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-F4VS
Index:
Stream 31 - 35 [Nov/Dec 2019] - Notes