Kristjan Kullamägi (Qullamaggie): Stream 26 - Stream 30 [Nov 2019] - Notes
Over the months I have gone through every stream that Kristjan Kullamägi (@Qullamaggie), a prolific momentum swing trader, has ever posted. Below I have categorized my notes into topics relating to his streams. Comments made by me, on my thoughts on a particular note, are italicized.
For reference, the chart below shows the overall market (SPY 0.00%↑) KK was trading in, at the time of the streams:
Stream #26: “Earnings season almost over! Nov 11, 2019”
Transitioning from Day Trading to Swing Trading:
When I was a day trader I didn’t manage a portfolio like I do now back then, but now it’s more about portfolio management. First couple of years I was a pure day trader, then I started holding stuff overnight, then doing more short-term swing trades, and now I do almost exclusively swing/position trading. I would rather hang myself than day trade again, there is no reason to day trade once you get your first million, I mean if you really like trading and sitting in front of the computers to look at charts and news sure why not, but I’m kinda lazy I don’t want to sit and trade 6-7 hours per day or more including premarket (PM) and after hours (AH). If you have $20,000 and want to get to $1M day trading can work really well and also shorter-term swing trading, if you have a small account it’s all about making a lot of trades. But once you get over a million you don’t need to find a lot of good trades, if you can just position yourself really well a couple of times per year that’s all you need.
Paid Memberships:
I have been a member of a lot of services, some don’t exist anymore, the only one I’m still a member of is @PradeepBonde. But I’ve been in a lot of chat rooms, @kunal00, @Cameronfous, @InvestorsLive, @danshep55, I did find them useful.
It’s about exposing yourself to as many traders as possible and learning from them, and once you’ve learned stuff from them it’s time to move on, you implement the best stuff, take a little bit from everyone, and implement those things in your own trading strategy. And since most of those are day traders and I’m not anymore I moved on, but in the early days, I found those sites pretty useful. It’s all about seeing what other traders do, how they make money, how they manage risk, how they manage winners, and losers. I think for a new trader it’s important to expose yourself to as many successful traders as possible.
It can be hard to find “successful” traders online because when starting out, you might not know what you are looking for and end up in a “trading guru’s” marketing funnel! It’s the age-old, you don’t know what you don’t know. I talk about it a bit more here. Be cautious and over time you can start to decipher snake oil salesmen from actual traders trying to help.
Breakout Setups:
EEM 0.00%↑ has been going sideways for 12 years, this is the mother of all flags, if this thing breaks this $45 area it’s gonna go to $100 easily, and could easily double from here. These markets they’re in mismanaged countries but most of them are pretty fast growing, they have young populations, and these countries are not going away, they’re gonna go higher. I am very bullish on the emerging markets.
Stream #27: “Almost end of earnings season. Nov 12, 2019”
Grouping Stocks by Themes:
I also like refiners, some really good looking setups in here
When trading breakout setups, KK looks at multiple stocks within the theme or industry to see if there are multiple stocks setting up for a breakout move. All 3 oil refiner tickers show promising breakout setups (from what he describes within his system)
In the fuel cell industry, he starts to track a few tickers that look promising;
Sh*tty Stocks:
I love sh*t stocks, sh*t stocks are the ones that make the biggest moves, both up and down. Stocks can make huge moves without any earnings, the best moves in the stock market are stocks that have either no earnings or very small earnings, that’s how the stock market works.
IPO’s
For 99% of IPOs, they have huge growth when they come on the market then start going downhill from there.
Signs of Strength in a Stock:
It’s a sign of strength when a stock pulls back to support and just immediately goes higher, and doesn’t stay down, that’s a very good sign.
Stream #28: “100% in 2 days on $FCEL! Can it go more? Nov 14, 2019”
Swing Trading Wisdom:
Small microcap-pumped names, don’t care what the market’s doing, they move on their own.
Sector Rotation:
Cyclical stocks, that’s how they do, they have good years, really good years, and really bad years, compared to a growth stock that just grows a bit every year.
Grouping Stocks by Themes:
Fuel cell names like PLUG 0.00%↑ , BLDP 0.00%↑ , and FCEL 0.00%↑ , I am excited about. This may be just the beginning of the move, this could be like the weed stocks last summer or the crypto stocks last year, double be like double then double then double again.
He continues to track stocks within these themes (ie. “Fuel Cells”) as a way to track and understand the theme’s momentum/ trends.
In reference to VLO 0.00%↑ (stock in the oil refinery industry) - if you look at this chart pattern, it had a leg up, been surfing the 10 and 20-day moving average, and is now catching up, looks exactly like Sep/Oct2017 where it had a leg higher surfing the 10day then it kind of went sideways a little bit so the 20day caught up, flagged then had a breakout and look what it did. This is the kind of stock you can risk $1 to make $20 - $30 or more, and it’s very liquid, I hope it can go sideways. I don’t want this thing to break out this week, maybe next week or something would be great.
Below is a picture of $VLO and what KK was looking at, at the time, as well as, a picture of his reference to the Sep/Oct2017 breakout that VLO made in the past. It is interesting to see that in the 2017 setup, the breakout pattern remains tight but the last few days sharply declines, then reclaims the pattern before breaking out to the upside.
Stream #29: “Last opportunities of the earnings season! Nov 15, 2019”
There’s not much to learn from in this stream but something to note, look how KK tracks the news of a specific stock so that he can see what the story is and its context. This must have been a full year of constantly looking at this stock and ensuring that he knew what news was occurring. A small thing but could help in more broader systems for understanding potentially why stocks move.
Stream #30: “Two 6-figure trades in the portfolio! Nov 19, 2019”
Penny Stock Bounces:
Referring to $MDR 0.00%↑: I’m watching for potential bounces, when they get really cheap, I’m thinking when they get down to like 10c why can’t they bounce back to like 50c or so, that would be a 400% move. I think looking at charts on penny stocks it is almost guaranteed that they go bankrupt but if they go to 10c your risk is 10c, pretty good R/R.
Day Trading Setup:
Referring to ROKU 0.00%↑: got rejected off the declining EMAs, put in some lower highs and broke lower, that’s a day trading setup. It was a textbook intraday chart, it failed the bounce, hit resistance areas with these declining EMAs, put in lower highs on the 1min chart here, took out the range to the downside and now it’s just fading.
Index:
Stream 26 - 30 [Nov 2019] - Notes