You Have to Believe - Qullamaggie: Stream 76 - 80 Review [Mar 2020]
A Review of Kristjan Kullamägi's Livestreams (Stream 76 to 80)
Over the months I have gone through every stream that Kristjan Kullamägi (@Qullamaggie), a prolific momentum swing trader, has ever posted. Below I have categorized my notes into topics relating to his streams. Comments made by me, on my thoughts on a particular note, are italicized. There is an index of all current streams that I have made notes on at the bottom of the post. If you want to start from the beginning of his streams see here:
![Kristjan Kullamägi (Qullamaggie): Stream 1 - Stream 5 [Oct 2019] - Notes](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4ff1b0e-6ef7-465e-83f3-4725f47a34b0_598x720.jpeg)
For reference, the chart below shows the overall market (SPY 0.00%↑) KK was trading in, at the time of the streams (March 2, 2020 to March 6, 2020):
Also just to note, all the stream names are exact names! I am not spelling them wrong
Stream 76: Still getting big opportunities trading virus stocks! Mar 2, 2020
Market Sentiment:
Usually, the biggest pullbacks always come after my biggest runs, so I don’t want to get super aggressive on anything.
Stream 77: Is TESLA setting up for antoher pullback? Mar 3, 2020
Getting an Edge:
You know you’re really going to notice these small nuances in stocks, compared to the markets, that’s a big edge, if you can read the tape. Spot relative strength and relative weakness.
Breakout Setups:
China Theme
NIO 0.00%↑ - Looks great good here, still holding this big, big flag pattern it’s been in for the past 2.5 months. This NIO looks really explosive, it’s just surfing on the rising 50 days. I think this thing is going to go up 50% maybe even 100% once it breaks out of this tight pattern. I really do. It just looks so explosive. I really do, it just looks incredibly explosive, this pattern. This thing tripled, it quadrupled, it pulled back, and now it’s just holding these higher lows.
$NIO LK too, these are two favorite setups right now, both Chinese stocks. Yes, they haven’t triggered yet, ideally, I would like to see the market... idk, if they trigger they trigger.
$LK
$NIO and $LKNCY (China names), look it’s not rocket science, they’re flagging and they’re showing relative strength. LK, a big IPO base, ran on earnings, pulled back to support, went back into range and it’s just been building HLs for the past 3 months and now it has a range here. And the markets have thrown everything they have at this stock, China all the corona stuff, they closed lots of businesses, this thing is not moving, China markets down, US markets down, it’s just holding inside of this range. What does that tell you? Next time the markets breathe a little and start going higher, where do you think these things will go? I think they’ll go a lot higher. If they can’t bring it down with all the bad news, where do you think it’s going to go? Probably higher. Same thing with $NIO, one of the biggest momo stocks in the market. Had lot of bad news, again it couldn’t go down, and they’ve thrown everything at it, it can’t go down, where do you think this thing will go next time it breaks out? It’s relative strength and momo, that’s it.
And it’s getting super tight, looks great on the weekly, getting really tight, it’s a five-star flag – A stock with high momo, showing big relative strength during a bad market period, getting tighter and tighter and it’s building HLs, this thing has been building HLs for four months, same with LK except for this new report where it briefly undercut but then reclaimed. What does that tell you? It tells you that buyers have been coming in, at higher levels every time this stock dips, which means there’s accumulation beneath. Now this doesn’t mean there’s a 100% chance this stock goes higher, it only means you will have a very good risk reward spot, with a decent probability these things will go up.
Remote Work Theme:
WORK 0.00%↑ It's looking nice, it’s building an IPO base here, looks like it’s found support on the rising 20 days, I think once the market has settled, this thing could be good. WORK, is just in the same theme, with all this corona bullsh*t people working from home, etc, that’s like one theme I’m really keeping track of, these things could really go. TEAM is probably the least exciting of these, it’s a very choppy name, generally, it hasn’t had any clean trends, it’s more of a buy-on-pullbacks kind of stock, you know, buy on support, not a buy-on-breakout type.
$WORK 
$TEAM
Stream 78: Corona stocks momentum leaving? Mar 4, 2020
Breakout Setups:
INO 0.00%↑ - It was like a 5 star breakout yesterday. By the time it broke out, the volume was 45M shares, the highest it had ever been, and it built HLs all day intraday on super, super vol. It was just so textbook. The right sector, big big volume, and just a perfect flag pattern intraday.
$INO
Holding Through Earnings:
Yeah, I hold through earnings all the time, when I’m in the money and I think the next report is going to be good.
Volatility Products:
These mrkt volatility products, they are programmed to go down, but sometimes you know, when mrkt volatility comes and u get sudden volatility, these things like $TVIX, $VXX and $UVXY, which are all variants of this $VIX fear index, these things can go up 50/100/150% in a matter of days. Back in 2018 one of these things halted and actually got delisted, if they go down more than 80% in one day they get liquidated.
Yeah if you can get a cheap borrow they are good long term shorts, but understand the risk, these things are not stocks and they are not regular etfs, so understand what you’re trading, understand the risks and how they work.
Hot Sectors:
Okay guys I’m going to teach you something. If you have a hot sector like this, you have to monitor, you have to create a watchlist and monitor all of the stocks. Just scroll through them during the day.
This is unacceptable guys, I’m super disappointed. Like I have 40 corona stocks in my watchlist. I just scroll through them, the most liquid ones. I sort them by dollar vol. Most of them are too illiquid for me to trade, but like every day, premarket, and during the day, I scroll through this list, look for setups, look for news. You know guys you have to do these things, you really have to, there’s really no excuse. And if you think there’s too many, just focus on the most liquid ones. Markets like these are when you can make your whole year in a few weeks. You just have to do this over and over and over again.
Indicators:
Sometimes getting an edge is having fewer things on your charts. I just try to keep it very basic, I really don’t want to add anything, if anything I want to remove stuff, but I’m so used to using VWAP and MAs, I don’t think I could ever remove those. Just trading off of basic price and volume action, and obviously identifying investor psychology, being able to identify these theme stocks before their big moves, and also the turning points on these things.
Stream 79: China and US growth stocks VERY STRONG! Mar 5, 2020
Swing Vs Day Trading:
I just don’t like these marginal setups, I look for big trades, things that can really go. These day trading setups are just not my thing. They just confuse me. I don’t day trade, I always try to hold for a few weeks or a few months preferably, that’s where the big winners are made, that’s where you get the big winners. It’s still stressful, trading is stressful no matter what the timeframe. But the good thing about swing and position trading is you don’t have to fight near your entry. As a day trader, you’re always near your entry. But as a swing trader, you know once the stock starts going, eg ZM, I’ve been holding this thing since 13th Feb, this thing is up 37% from my entry, like once it went I didn’t have to look at it all the time, I know it’s up a bunch.
$ZM As a day trader you’re always sitting near your entry, that sucks. And there’s very little money to be made, generally, in day trading.
Breakout Setups:
I prefer breakouts that go immediately, I don’t like the ones that fall back into their ranges.
Position Sizing:
As a swing and position trader, in the right kind of market, size you’re always scaling up, if your account goes up 50%, you should try to scale up your size 50%. You do it step by step, you should always try to stretch it. But you have to do it the correct way. You have to do it from a position of strength. You do it when you’ve had a good period, not when things are going bad. If things are going bad, that’s when you should reduce your size. A risk per trade of 2.5% is way too much, you have 6 or 7 losers in a row and you’re down 20% of your account. You should probably cut it in half. I usually risk around 0.25% on most of my trades. 0.2-0.7%, I rarely risk more than 1%. Sometimes I do, maybe a few times per week, if that. Depends on the market conditions, but in the past two weeks there have been so many opportunities, and I’ve been pretty aggressive. I’ve had a lot of 1% type of trades where I risk 1% or even more. Like when I took APT, I took several 1% losses before I nailed it on the short side, I took like 3 to 4, 1% losses on it, but then I nailed it and I made it back and then some.
ETFs
I think it’s less stressful to hold an ETF than individual stocks, there’s more diversification. $KWEB has like 15 - 20 other stocks, it’s very unlikely to have a big move lower on very bad news.
Choppy Markets:
It’s a little bit of a tricky market, there’s strength and there’s weakness at the same time. That’s what choppy markets are, they can be a little bit confusing sometimes. It’s a dangerous market, they hook you and then they just crap, that’s what choppy markets do. Real stocks are a little dangerous right now I think, this chop could go on for many weeks, even months. Even though a lot of stocks look good, this is still a very dangerous market environment for buying breakouts, we could go down any day.
Strong Stocks:
I mean f*ck these weak stocks, you can clearly see which stocks want to go. There’s no reason to look at weak stocks or stocks that are near the bottom of their ranges, when there are all these strong stocks. Focus on the ones that are in uptrends, that have been holding up really well during the correction. Focus on those ones that’s where the big money is.
Trash Stocks
Many times, the junkiest names are the best longs. I’m telling you these are the best ones, the junkier the name, the better the long, bc there’s so many shorts in those names.
$AHPI
Stream 80: Will $TVIX be my biggest trade ever? Mar 6, 2020
Swing Trading Wisdom:
I lost 1/3 of my account in like a few hours, trying to short it on day two. I had no idea what I was doing, I was like ‘oh it’s up 1500% in two days it’s going to go down’.. nope. IT more than doubled. Then I went to a bbq with some friends, it wasn’t a great day, I felt like sh*t. I made so many stupid trades, I made so many stupid trades during my trading career. You know success in trading is really just cutting out all the stupid things. Every year I try to do a little bit fewer of the really dumb things and more of the good things.
Trading is so binary. You have weeks and months that are like watching paint dry, and then you have days and weeks where you need 2 heads and 6 arms and 5 brains. My brain has been fried these past two weeks. I don’t take vacations if I’d missed last week... I made more money last week than I did last year.
Being Greeeedy:
I should probably be locking some in here, but I’m a degenerate, I’m a homerun trader, and I’m probably going to regret it, but I locked in like 100 shares of 14,200 shares. Oh man, it’s kind of scary. It’s one thing taking a big loss, but it’s another thing holding a big profit, especially if it’s a profit that’s bigger than anything you’ve seen before, that’s one of the most stressful things ever. It’s so scary, but you really need to believe it can go further in your direction. That’s really what happened on TSLA, I was up $650k, and I thought it was going to go another 150 bucks but it reversed back higher, I gave back a bunch of profit. But then I nailed it. But you really have to believe it will do what you think it will do.
$TSLA
Timeframes:
I use mostly the daily chart, and if it’s interesting on the daily chart I’m looking at the 60-minute chart, and if it’s interesting on the 60-minute chart, sometimes I use the 5-minute or 1-minute charts to get a slightly higher resolution.
Breakout Setups:
Don’t buy breakouts in corrective markets; remember that mantra. I just get so tempted sometimes, I really get tempted, no bueno. It’s not a breakout type of a market, we’re too early.
Choppy Markets:
The thing with Relative Strength (RS) stocks, they can only hold up for so long. If we take another dive lower on the mrkts, all these RS stocks will tank too eventually. WORK stopped out, This is exactly what I’m talking about, choppy environment, dangerous breakouts. This is exactly what’s happening. They look so good, and they get you in, and then they just tank on you, this is exactly what I wanted to avoid.
$WORK
Creating a Database:
$INO, guys this is one of the most perfect setups I have ever seen, memorise this. You should take screenshots of perfect setups. You should build a database of perfect setups. You should invest in yourselves. Just take screenshots of before and after. Everything lined up perfectly on this $INO.
Get some kind of software like Evernote or something, just take screenshots. Before, and after, write down your thoughts, and observations. You have to train your brain to see these things. Not only the technical patterns but also the psychological patterns. Like what’s going on, what’s hot right now, what sectors are going? What’s working, what’s not working? All of these things.
For MicroCap Stocks: You can’t look at price levels from so far back, it’s totally meaningless. Indices yes, but for individual stocks, it’s dangerous to look that far back, it’s usually a completely different company.
Entry / Exits:
Yes, I use market stops. Always use market stops, otherwise, you’ll get into trouble, otherwise, you will get into trouble.
GARP Trading:
VIPS 0.00%↑ - Yesterday gapped up on earnings, I saw the ORH breakout, and I saw the intraday breakout, it’s holding up like a champion. It was incredible, I’ve never seen a growth stock like that ($VIPS), I wish I could trade back then, I had no idea how to trade back then. But study this move. Now it’s more of a GARP name, growth at a reasonable price, it has decent growth, and it’s kinda low valuation. This is one of the most powerful growth stocks I’ve ever seen, from 2012 to 2015 this thing went up over 4000%, it had some insane numbers, it grew both eps and rev like 3/4/500% for years.
$VIPS
-F4VS
Index:
Stream 76 - 80 [Mar 2020] - Notes
You do an amazing job and invest a lot of time and effort which is clear and greatly appreciated. I plan to become a paid subscriber as soon as I am able to and hope thousand will as well.