Breakouts, Bear Markets, and COVID Chaos - Qullamaggie: Stream 91 - 95 Review [Mar/Apr 2020]
A Review of Kristjan Kullamägi's Livestreams (Stream 91 to 95): Breakout Tactics, Mean Reversion Secrets, and the Mindset That Predicted Post-Crash Opportunities
I’ve been slacking on posts and I am sorry about that folks. Trying to figure shit out still on the trading front. Trying to focus more on trading vs content but that is resulting in no movement on either front. In the meantime, reviewing and posting these help my understanding of the markets.
Over the months I have gone through every stream that Kristjan Kullamägi (@Qullamaggie), a prolific momentum swing trader, has ever posted. Below I have categorized my notes into topics relating to his streams. Comments made by me, on my thoughts on a particular note, are italicized. I have noted an index of all current streams at the bottom of the post. If you want to start from the beginning of his streams see here:
![Kristjan Kullamägi (Qullamaggie): Stream 1 - Stream 5 [Oct 2019] - Notes](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LR39!,w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4ff1b0e-6ef7-465e-83f3-4725f47a34b0_598x720.jpeg)
For reference, the chart below shows the overall market (SPY 0.00%↑) KK was trading in, at the time of the streams (March 26, 2020 to April 6, 2020):
Stream 91 (Market in limbo. Potential monster setups building though. Mar 26, 2020)
Breakout Setups:
Continuation breakouts are the best in bull markets, it all depends on the market conditions. I would never buy a breakout in this kind of market environment.
Generally in corrective markets, you don’t get many b/os that work, most of them just fail.
Choppy or Down Trending Markets:
Oversold setups just like this (TLRY 0.00%↑), you only get them every few years. It depends on why things are oversold, I prefer things that are oversold, I prefer things that get oversold in a bear market, those are the best ones.
$TLRY - Daily / Hourly Chart You have to look at other types of setups, like mean reversion setups. You have to be very aware of the markets and where we are in the market cycle. So I’ve been mostly doing mean reversion stuff, both on the long and the short side.
Stream 92 (This gap down ruining my setups! Mar 27, 2020)
Choppy or Down Trending Markets:
It’s also good to see some Relative Strength (RS), with this market bounce, which stocks are not bouncing, those are the first ones to go down, once the markets stop going higher.
Stream 93 (My favorite growth stock turned out to be a FRAUD! Apr 2, 2020)
“I’m bald. I don’t need a haircut, I shave my head.”
Bear Markets:
We had an hour rally yesterday, then just faded the rest of the day. Let’s see if we get the same thing today. Classic bear market action, you get a strong first couple of hours, then a sell of the rest of the day.
This is the time you start seeing what stocks are holding up well and which are strong, down markets are a perfect time for this.
I think in the next few months, there’s gonna be some life-changing amounts of money to be made in the markets, just have to wait for the right spots. Just have to wait and have patience.
Breakout Setups:
A lot of the stocks that were about to breakout, they’re pulling back and now they’re building a base, hopefully, we get some base building for a few weeks. BLDP 0.00%↑ is building HLs on the 150SMA, this is a theme stock, and it has not got the earnings yet but in a strong uptrend.
COVID-19 Theme:
KK spotted APT 0.00%↑ as it was a Covid19 PPE company and had a great setup.
Stream 94 (I was shaken out of my $TSLA short near the top… Apr 3, 2020)
Entry / Exits:
Little bit annoying, but you have to respect your stops, otherwise you won’t last long.
Choppy or Down Trending Markets:
There are some stocks setting up, but I just think it’s a very hostile market for breakouts. Unless you’re a very short-term trader, and just like sell into the first pop the same day, but when I buy breakouts I’m looking to hold for months. We’re not in that type of market yet.
Remember don’t overtrade in this market. There are very few opportunities because everything is so correlated. It’s all about getting the overall market direction right, right now.
Stream 95 (Starting to see breakouts among my favorite growth stocks!!! Apr 6, 2020)
Breakout Setups:
I usually just buy breakouts. I find it hard to buy pullbacks, because the best breakouts don’t pullback. I mean if you kind of miss the breakout then yeah absolutely, but if you’re just buying pullbacks, you’re buying sh*tty breakouts.
IPO’s:
IPOs can have very big runs, because they’re new and exciting, and many times they can have big big growth numbers. I don’t run this scan very often, maybe once per week or once per fortnight.
Entry / Exits:
My core philosophy; as long as the stock is not up more than its ATR, I try not to buy stocks up more than their ATR, SE 0.00%↑ is well inside my criteria, and I’m looking for big moves. Trading is not an exact science, it’s more about getting the big picture right.
$SE - Daily / Hourly Chart
Current Market (April 2020):
I’m looking for individual names, because the market leaders, they’re going to start their up moves before the market bottoms, or before the market starts looking good, that is. I’m slowly building exposure, it’s not like there’s a switch and I go full long. I’m gonna build exposure over many weeks.
For the first time in months, I’m starting to see some decent long setups in some of the names that held up the best. I’m just dipping my toes in the market on the long side, very carefully. There is some constructive action.
I’m just letting the market dictate if I should be long or short. Right now I’m getting stopped out of a bunch of shorts. That’s also what happened a couple of months ago when this market started fading, I just got stopped out. Early-mid Feb/late Feb, I started getting stopped out of my longs, and I got more and more short. Right now it’s the opposite happening, shorts keep getting stopped out and I’m starting to build my long portfolio. So we’ll see there is definitely some character change.
Happy trading my people,
-F4VS
Qullamaggie Index:
Stream 91 - 95 Review [Mar/Apr 2020] - Notes